Talk with ULFA

Will Talks with Ulfa Go Anywhere?
VED MARWAH PROFESSOR, CENTRE FOR POLICY RESEARCH Yes, Because Ulfa is Under Pressure Two essential preconditions for the success of the talks are: one, the Ulfa has genuinely come to the conclusion that continuation of violence will no longer serve its purpose, and two, it as well as the government are serious about the talks and not entering into them for their short-term objectives. If the insurgents’ main aim is to buy time to arm and regroup and the state government is only interested in deluding the electorate on the eve of the state assembly elections, then the current talks would also end the same way as the previous ones. Last time too, driven out of the Bhutan forests, Ulfa cadres wanted a breathing space to recover and regroup. The much-publicised talks through some well-known and wellintentioned interlocutors came to nothing and we later saw a wave of fresh violence in Assam. This time, too, the timing of the talks and trumpeting them as a great achievement of the Gogoi government raise doubts about their sincerity. It would be a pity if the government were to squander this opportunity that has come primarily because of close cooperation of the Bangladesh government which hitherto was providing open sanctuary to Ulfa leaders there. The Ulfa leadership is under great stress and the ground situation in Assam has greatly improved. The outfit has lost much of its sheen and no longer enjoys much public support. It is finding it difficult to get fresh recruits. There is strong desire for peace and great public revulsion against extortion by Ulfa cadres in the state. But there also the negative side: there are reports of renewed Chinese interest in India’s northeast and its promised support to Ulfa. Pakistan’s ISI is also active in this region. The government should not read too much into the present lull. The situation could deteriorate in the foreseeable future. These talks are important and the government should not see them through the prism of partisan politics. A successful end to Ulfa and Naga insurgencies could play a major role in defeating the other hundred-odd insurgencies that are raging in the north-east.
HIREN GOHAIN CHIEF SPOKESMAN, SANMILITA JATIYA ABHIBARTAN (SJA) Only if Government Shows Wisdom One must realise that the failure or sabotaging of such talks at an opportune moment, with the public in Assam keen for a resolution of the conflict, especially in a strategically sensitive region, is bound to have costly consequences for the country. The climate is now favourable as never before. The General Council of Ulfa had decided overwhelmingly in favour of peace, and for the moment the few dissidents who did not attend have no power to weaken their resolve. The moot point is whether the government has the wisdom and political will to listen and make more than cosmetic changes in the status of Assam. The Ulfa leadership is now ready to give up the demand for sovereignty provided in return the people of Assam are empowered to shape their own future in accordance with their needs and aspirations. The Centre has earned in the last 60 years a lot more from the resources of Assam than it has cared to invest here, and the pattern of development too has not deviated much from that of colonial times. Pouring money in through thoughtless ‘packages’ only encourages plunder and loot by the privileged few. A thorough structural reform is the need of the hour. The people of Assam are raising that demand, and they must be heard. Some critics point to ethnic differences, but those are partly the result of skimpy handouts from the Centre that the Assamese elite were loath to share, and now that ethnic groups are awake and Ulfa leaders are sensitive to their rights, an equitable solution is possible. The SJA is preparing the framework, broadly covering different aspects and the Ulfa leadership is ready to listen to expert advice. In spite of provocations and temptations, the leadership has kept aloof from the ongoing electoral adjustments and manipulations and has not identified with any political group. P C Haldar, the interlocutor appointed by the government, has so far done everything in his power to remove bottlenecks on the road to a dialogue. Therefore, there isn’t any reason to be pessimistic about the talks. But the decision-makers must put the good of the country above narrow sectional interests and goals.